Sichuan Jiuniu vs Henan Jianye — result and prediction review
Sichuan Jiuniu 2 - 2 Henan Jianye
Prediction review
Pre-match call: Draw / Away Win Outcome hit
Pre-match exact score: 1-1, 0-1, 1-2 Score missed
Full pre-match analysis
🏆 Core Prediction Conclusion
Target Match: [Super League] Sichuan Jiuniu VS Henan Jianye
Match Date: 2026-10-09
Direction: Draw/Away Win (double pick including Draw)
HT/FT: D/A
Scores Recommendation: 1-1, 0-1, 1-2
Pick Selection: Away Win/Draw
Handicap Recommendation: Asian handicap Away -0.25 is bettable; Sports Lottery handicap +1 Home Win (i.e. Sichuan Jiuniu +1 unbeaten) is worth a punt. Asian handicap Away -0.25 requires Henan to win by one goal for a full win, a draw loses half — harder than the Sports Lottery receiving handicap.
Goals Range: Under + 2-3 goals
Market Agreement: 67% · With the market
⚠️ Risk Warning
Upset Alert: Yes. Henan Jianye have 0 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, an extremely low win rate, conceding an average of 3.00 goals per away game (real data from the last 3 away matches), with obvious defensive holes. Sichuan Jiuniu concede only 0.67 goals per home game on average, with the ability to steal points at home. If Henan continue their draw habit, a Home Win/Draw is not a low-probability event.
Trap Alert: Yes. The market's Away Win odds of 2.2 correspond to an implied probability of 41.9%, but Henan have no win in their last 6 matches, and the market may have overestimated the away side's ability to win. Henan's draw tendency is extremely strong (5 draws in the last 6), the Away Win odds of 2.2 carry a risk of being overestimated, while the Draw at 3.5 actually has some value.
Direct Advice: Henan Jianye's win rate is overestimated by the market, the Draw is underestimated; the Away Win/Draw double pick is the more solid choice, and a single Draw bet has positive expected value.
⚽ Match Details Forecast
Cards: 3-5
Corners: 7-11
Early Goal Alert (15m/30m): Early 1 (1-15 min) has a goal / Early 2 (16-30 min) no goal. Sichuan Jiuniu's scoring frequency in the 1-15 minute window over the last 6 matches is 33%, Henan Jianye's is 17%; the home side has some attacking sharpness in the opening phase; but both teams' overall recent scoring efficiency is low, and neither side shows a significant tendency for early goals in the 16-30 minute window.
Key Periods: The 60-75 minute window of the second half is the key scoring window; after Henan Jianye's away physical fitness drops, their defense tends to loosen, and Sichuan Jiuniu have the ability to score at home in the second half.
📊 Fundamentals Summary
Ranking/Recent Form: Sichuan Jiuniu have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 8, averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game (real completed-match data from the last 6), a middling run of form. At home in 3 matches: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, averaging 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded, with decent home defensive resilience. Henan Jianye have 0 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 10, averaging 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded per game (real completed-match data from the last 6), an extremely low win rate but an extremely strong draw tendency. Away in 3 matches: 0 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, averaging 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded, with an away defense that is virtually nonexistent. Neither team shows signs of a coaching change or major squad changes recently, and their tactical systems are relatively stable. Sichuan Jiuniu lean toward steady defense and counterattack at home, while Henan Jianye are strong in attack and weak in defense away; the tempo of the match may be dictated by the home side.
Injuries: No reliable injury information for this match (data missing). Based on existing data, Sichuan Jiuniu's home defensive data is decent; if the back line stays intact, they can be expected to limit Henan's away attack. Henan Jianye concede 3.00 goals per away game on average, with prominent defensive problems; if a key center-back or defensive midfielder is absent, the away defense will deteriorate further. Due to the lack of a specific injury list, the precise impact of individual player absences on tactical function cannot be assessed; this is a model inference rather than fact.
Motivation: Super League regular season round 27, with the season entering its final stage. Sichuan Jiuniu are currently in a mid-table position, with motivation to fight for points at home, but no clear title-chasing or relegation pressure, so motivation is moderately above average. Henan Jianye have not won in 6 matches and badly need a victory to lift morale, but the run of draws may reflect the team's lack of ability to finish matches. Neither team has a clear end-of-season extreme motive (such as a title race or a relegation decider), so motivation does not constitute a significant asymmetry. Note that a safety-first mentality may appear at the end of the Super League season, and a draw is not an unacceptable result for either side.
Data: Sichuan Jiuniu average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game over the last 6 (real completed-match data from the last 6), and 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded per home game. Henan Jianye average 1.17 scored and 1.67 conceded per game over the last 6 (real completed-match data from the last 6), and 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded per away game. In head-to-head terms, Sichuan Jiuniu have 1 win, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 7 meetings with Henan Jianye, with an average of 2.00 total goals per game, and Henan hold the psychological edge. On market odds, Home Win 2.9, Draw 3.5, Away Win 2.2; after removing the margin, the implied probabilities are Home Win 31.8%, Draw 26.3%, Away Win 41.9%. The Asian handicap is Away -0.25, with Away odds at 1.95. The market's most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (6.6%). xG data is missing (data missing), so expected-goals analysis cannot be performed. Based on Henan's extreme draw rate of 0 wins and 5 draws in the last 6, the Draw odds of 3.5 have positive expected value (+EV), while the Away Win at 2.2 may be overestimated.
🔍 Triple Verification
Signal Feedback: Stable
Data Support: Neutral
Price Value: Draw underestimated, Away Win overestimated
Final Judgement: Henan Jianye's win rate is overestimated by the market, and the Draw has positive expected value. Sichuan Jiuniu's home defense is decent; Henan's away defense has obvious holes but their attack is threatening. The most likely outcome of this match is a draw or a narrow away win; the Away Win/Draw double pick is recommended, and a single Draw bet has relatively high value.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This report is based on professional data models, for reference only, not betting advice.
🔬 Key Uncertainty
The biggest missing variables for this match are the specific injury lists and starting lineups of both sides (data missing). If Henan Jianye's key foreign striker or defensive core is absent, their away attacking efficiency will drop significantly, the draw probability will rise further, and the away win probability will be revised down. If Sichuan Jiuniu's main center-back is absent, Henan's away scoring probability increases, and the Over direction becomes more likely. In addition, rotation or fluctuations in motivation may occur at the end of the Super League season, so attention should be paid to odds movements after the pre-match starting lineups are announced. The above is model inference, not certain fact.