Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing — result and prediction review
Chongqing Tongliang Long 0 - 1 Dalian Zhixing
Prediction review
Pre-match call: Home Win / Draw Outcome missed
Pre-match exact score: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 Score missed
Full pre-match analysis
🏆 Core Prediction Conclusion
Target Match: [Super League] Chongqing Tongliang Long VS Dalian Zhixing
Match Date: 2026-08-23
Direction: Home Win/Draw (double chance, including draw)
HT/FT: D/H
Scores Recommendation: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1
Pick Selection: Home Win/Draw (Home Win or Draw)
Handicap Recommendation: Asian Handicap Home -1.25 (Home covering the spread is difficult; prefer to skip or small stake on Away +1.25); Sports Lottery Handicap -1, recommend Handicap Draw or Handicap Away Win — Home winning by 2 goals is extremely difficult
Goals Range: Under + 2-3 goals
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
⚠️ Risk Warning
Upset Alert: Yes. Chongqing Tongliang Long have failed to win in their last 6 matches, averaging only 0.67 goals per game in attack, and their home advantage has been severely diluted. Dalian Zhixing have poor away defending (conceding 2.0 goals per game on average), but their attack has a foreign striker as a focal point and possesses counter-attacking ability. If the home side fails to break through after sustained pressure, the probability of the away side scoring on the counter is not low.
Trap Alert: Yes. The market odds for Home Win at 2.15 are notably lower than Away Win at 3.25, seemingly backing the home side, but the home team's recent form is extremely poor and they have conceded 2.0 goals per game in their two home matches — this price carries suspicion of "reputation premium." The Asian Handicap of Home -1.25 is even more of a deep-handicap trap: given the home side's attacking efficiency of 0.67 goals per game, winning by 2 goals is nearly impossible, making this line highly deceptive.
Direct Advice: Skip the home handicap, single-pick Home Win/Draw or directly back the Draw; the Under direction is safer.
⚽ Match Details Forecast
Cards: 4-6 cards. Dalian Zhixing average 3.8 cards per game themselves, with overly aggressive defensive actions; playing away will further increase tactical foul frequency. Chongqing Tongliang Long, eager to grab points at home, are expected to have high midfield pressing intensity.
Corners: 8-12 (per authoritative model output). Chongqing Tongliang Long average 3.5 corners per game and concede 8.0 corners to opponents; Dalian Zhixing average 4.7 corners per game. Combined corner output is on the low side, and total corners are unlikely to exceed 12.
Early Goal Alert (15m/30m): Early (1-15min) no goal / Early 2 (16-30min) goal. Dalian Zhixing have scored in the 1-15 minute window in 50% of their last 6 matches, but Chongqing Tongliang Long have a 0% concession rate in that period — both sides are likely to probe each other early. In the 16-30 minute window, Chongqing Tongliang Long have a 33% scoring frequency and Dalian Zhixing also have a 33% scoring frequency — this is the high-incidence period for breaking the deadlock.
Key Periods: 16-30 minutes (both sides have a 33% scoring frequency in this window — the most likely time for the opening goal); 75-90 minutes (if the home side fails to break through, they will push forward, leaving more space for the away side's counters, with a high chance of a late winner or late equalizer in stoppage time).
📊 Fundamentals Summary
Ranking/Recent Form: Chongqing Tongliang Long are currently in the lower-middle part of the league table, with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 league rounds and no wins — in extremely poor form. Their attack has severely stalled, averaging only 0.67 goals per game, a typical "toothless attack"; defensively they concede 1.33 goals per game, which looks acceptable on the surface, but in two home matches they have conceded 2.0 goals per game, so the home defense is not solid. The head coach's tactical system leans toward defensive solidity and counter-attacks, but the team lacks an effective midfield organizer, resulting in extremely low transition efficiency and no means to break down set defenses. Dalian Zhixing have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 6 rounds — clearly better form than the home side — averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded, with relatively balanced attack and defense. In 4 away matches they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.0 conceded — their away defense has notable holes, but their attack maintains consistent threat through the individual quality of foreign players. The away coach excels at using wide speed to create counter-attacking chances, which directly exploits the space left behind when the home side pushes forward.
Injuries: For Chongqing Tongliang Long, xG data is missing and injury information is incomplete. Based on the current squad list, the team lacks creative midfielders; if the starting defensive midfielder or playmaker is absent, their already weak attacking link-up will be further diminished. Bench depth is limited — if the starting XI cannot break through, there is very little room for tactical adjustment. For Dalian Zhixing, xG data is missing and injury information is incomplete. The squad features multiple foreign players (e.g., Lucão, I. Amadou, etc.) with high reliance on them — if any of the foreign forwards or midfielders cannot play, the team's attacking firepower will drop off a cliff. Additionally, the away side average 3.8 cards per game themselves, and their defensive midfielders and back line face a high risk of yellow-card accumulation suspensions, which would affect the stability of their away defense.
Motivation: Chongqing Tongliang Long are playing at home and urgently need a win to end their 6-match winless run — their motivation is beyond doubt. The team currently faces little relegation pressure, but the expectation of home fans will translate into extra desire to win. However, this eagerness may cause the formation to push too high and be exploited by the away side's counters. Dalian Zhixing are playing away with a clear objective — avoid defeat and fight for points. Their recent away form has been inconsistent, but facing a home side in worse form, their desire to take points is strong. Given that the league schedule has entered the middle-to-late stage, the away side has no cup distractions and can fully commit to the league, with guaranteed fitness and focus. Neither side faces extreme relegation or title pressure, so the match is more likely to be a tactical battle than a high-intensity open exchange.
Data: Chongqing Tongliang Long's actual completed data over the last 6 matches: 0.67 goals scored per game, 1.33 conceded; in 2 home matches: 1.50 goals scored per game, 2.00 conceded. Dalian Zhixing's actual completed data over the last 6 matches: 1.50 goals scored per game, 1.50 conceded; in 4 away matches: 1.25 goals scored per game, 2.00 conceded. In terms of attacking and defensive efficiency, the home side's attack is severely below league average, while the away side's away defense is equally fragile — neither side has absolute certainty of keeping a clean sheet. In head-to-head history, over the last 5 meetings Chongqing Tongliang Long have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, but in the most recent meeting (May 2026), Dalian Zhixing won 1-0 at home, giving the away side a slight psychological edge. Market odds: Home Win 2.15, Draw 3.4, Away Win 3.25 — after removing margin, Home Win probability is 43.6%, Draw 27.6%, Away Win 28.8%. The market shows some lean toward the home side but without strong conviction. The Asian Handicap of Home -1.25, given the home side's attacking efficiency of 0.67 goals per game, is clearly too deep and suggests the home team's strength is being overestimated. Overall, the home side's win probability is slightly overestimated by the market, the draw probability is underestimated, and the Away Win/Draw direction carries some value. xG data is missing, preventing a more precise expected-goals comparison, but the actual goal data is sufficient to support the Under call.
🔍 Triple Verification
Signal Feedback: Stable. Market odds broadly align with both sides' recent form — the home side has a slight edge but no overwhelming signal, and the draw weight is underestimated.
Data Support: Neutral. The home side's attacking data is extremely poor, and the away side's away defense is equally poor — neither side has a crushing advantage, and the data does not support a deep handicap.
Price Value: Overestimated. The Home Win price of 2.15 corresponds to a 43.6% win probability, but the home side's actual form of 0 wins in their last 6 matches cannot support this probability; the Asian Handicap of Home -1.25 severely overestimates the home side's ability to win by multiple goals, and the Away +1.25 receiving direction has clear value.
Final Judgement: This is a typical "weak home vs mid-table away" contest. The home side is in poor form but retains home motivation; the away side has fragile away defense but a threatening attack. The market's confidence in the home side comes more from home-field reputation than actual form, and the deep handicap is an obvious trap. The safe strategy is the Home Win/Draw double chance; the aggressive strategy is to directly back the Draw. The Under direction is trustworthy.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This report is based on professional data models, for reference only, not betting advice.
Key Uncertainty Note: The biggest variable in this match is the completeness of both sides' injury lists — currently xG data is missing and injury information is incomplete. If Chongqing Tongliang Long's key midfielder or forward is confirmed out, their already weak attack will be further paralyzed, requiring the Home Win probability to be revised down by 5-8 percentage points, with the Draw probability revised up accordingly; if Dalian Zhixing's core foreign forward is out, the away side's counter-attacking threat will be greatly weakened, raising the home side's unbeaten probability. Additionally, the deep Asian Handicap of Home -1.25 itself implies the market lacks confidence in a big home win; if the line drops to 1 goal or 0.75 goals at kickoff, it further validates the judgment that the home side cannot cover the handicap.