Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long — result and prediction review
Qingdao Youth Island 0 - 0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
Prediction review
Pre-match call: Home Win / Draw Outcome hit
Pre-match exact score: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 Score missed
Full pre-match analysis
🏆 Core Prediction Conclusion
Target Match: [Super League] Qingdao Youth Island VS Chongqing Tongliang Long
Match Date: 2026-08-14
Direction: Home Win/Draw (double chance, including draw)
HT/FT: D/H
Scores Recommendation: 1-0, 2-1, 1-1
Pick Selection: Home Win/Draw (Home Win or Draw)
Handicap Recommendation: Asian Handicap Home -1.25 (deep line, needs 2-goal margin to win fully, high risk); Sports Lottery Handicap -1 Home Win (needs 2-goal margin, difficult, not recommended as first choice)
Goals Range: Under (2 goals), goals range 2-3 goals
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
⚠️ Risk Warning
Upset Alert: Yes. Although Chongqing Tongliang Long are winless in their last 6 matches, their away defensive numbers are not collapsing (1.75 goals conceded per game), and the two teams met in the CFA Cup on July 21, where Chongqing won 2-0 against Qingdao Youth Island. The psychological edge from the cup tie could translate into motivation to take points in the league. Qingdao Youth Island's home attacking efficiency (1.67 goals per game) is not overwhelming, and if they fail to break through for a long period, they are vulnerable to counter-attacks.
Trap Alert: Yes. The market odds for Home Win at 2.05 imply a 46.1% probability, but the Asian Handicap opens at Home -1.25, meaning the market expects the home side to win by 2 goals to be safe. Qingdao Youth Island have averaged only 1.00 goal per game in their last 6 matches, and their attacking firepower is insufficient to support a deep handicap — this line contains a trap of overestimating the home side's ability to win big. The Draw odds at 3.5 are level with Away Win at 3.5, suggesting the value of the away side not losing is underestimated.
Direct Advice: First choice Home Win/Draw (double chance), avoid the deep handicap, focus on Under 2-3 goals range.
⚽ Match Details Forecast
Cards: 3-5 cards. Qingdao Youth Island average 2.8 cards per game, Chongqing Tongliang Long average 0.8 cards per game. The two teams have very different card profiles. The home side's midfield pressing intensity is high, while the away side may use tactical fouls to stop counter-attacks on the road. Total cards expected in the 3-5 range.
Corners: 8-12 corners. Qingdao Youth Island average 3.8 corners per game and concede 4.0 corners per game; Chongqing Tongliang Long average 3.5 corners per game and concede as many as 8.0 corners per game. The away side's wide defensive vulnerabilities are obvious, and sustained home pressure will create corner opportunities, but the home side's own corner output is limited, keeping total corners in the model-calculated 8-12 range.
Early Goal Alert (15m/30m): No goal in Period 1 (1-15 min) / Goal in Period 2 (16-30 min). Both teams have a 0% goal frequency in the 1-15 minute window across their last 6 matches, indicating a probing opening phase; both have a 33% goal frequency in the 16-30 minute window. Qingdao Youth Island's ability to start fast at home is moderate, while Chongqing Tongliang Long's away defense tends to lose concentration after 15 minutes, creating a scoring window in this period.
Key Periods: 31-45 minutes and 75-85 minutes. The home side has a high probability of pushing in the middle of the first half, and the away side's defensive line loosens as fatigue sets in, with stoppage time prone to late winners or equalizers.
📊 Fundamentals Summary
Ranking/Recent Form: Qingdao Youth Island have 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, with stable overall form. In their last 3 home matches they are unbeaten with 2 wins and 1 draw, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game, with home attacking and defensive efficiency clearly superior to their away record. The team's tactics focus on midfield control, with the head coach emphasizing a combination of wide crosses and set pieces, and the formation pushes higher when playing at home. Chongqing Tongliang Long have 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, in poor form. In their last 4 away matches they have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, averaging only 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game, showing weakness on both ends. The away side's tactics lean toward defensive counter-attacks, but with low away possession and poor counter-attacking efficiency, they struggle to progress the ball through midfield against home teams that press. In their last 3 away matches they have been shut out or scored only 1 goal, lacking sustained attacking threat. The ranking gap between the two teams is reflected in recent form, with the home side holding a clear home advantage and the away side's away capabilities in question.
Injuries: Specific injury list data is unavailable, and key player absences cannot be confirmed. Inferring from tactical roles, if Qingdao Youth Island are missing a key wide player, it would directly impact their crossing tactics and reduce set-piece scoring ability; if Chongqing Tongliang Long are missing their midfield core or foreign striker, their counter-attacking speed would be severely weakened, making it harder to organize effective attacks away from home. Both teams rely on foreign strikers for goals — if the foreign attackers cannot start, attacking threat drops significantly. Current injury information is unclear and must be confirmed against the pre-match starting lineup. If the home side's wide players or the away side's foreign players are absent on matchday, the game's trajectory could change significantly.
Motivation: This is Round 23 of the league regular season. Qingdao Youth Island are at home with clear intent to win — taking points at home is the foundation for consolidating their ranking, and with no cup distractions, they are fully focused on the league. Chongqing Tongliang Long are away from home under heavy pressure from a 6-match winless run and urgently need points to stop the slide, but facing a strong home side, their tactics may prioritize not conceding first before seeking counter-attacking opportunities. Neither team has extreme motivational differences related to relegation or title races, but the home side has stronger incentive to take points at home, while the away side clearly adopts a cautious approach on the road. In the CFA Cup on July 21, Chongqing beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-0, so the away side holds no psychological disadvantage — they may adopt a more aggressive stance in this match, and motivation is not one-sided.
Data: Qingdao Youth Island average 1.00 goal scored and 0.83 conceded per game in their last 6 matches (actual completed match data), and in their last 3 home matches average 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, showing clear improvement in home attacking efficiency, though overall goal output remains low. Chongqing Tongliang Long average 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game in their last 6 matches (actual completed match data), and in their last 4 away matches average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded, with away numbers trailing across the board. xG data is unavailable, so expected goals comparison cannot be made. Judging by actual goals alone, the home side's home attack is superior to the away side's away defense, but the margin is limited. In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Qingdao Youth Island have 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with an average of 2.00 total goals per game — a 0-2 loss in the CFA Cup and a 1-1 draw in the league, meaning the head-to-head record is not in their favor. Market odds are Home Win 2.05, Draw 3.5, Away Win 3.5. After removing the margin, Home Win probability is 46.1%, Draw 27.0%, Away Win 27.0%. The market favors the home side but does not indicate absolute dominance. The Asian Handicap at Home -1.25 requires a 2-goal margin for a full win, but the home side average only 1.00 goal per game, making deep handicap coverage difficult — there is a possibility the market overestimates the home side's ability to win big. Compared with the home side's 1.67 goals per game at home, the probability of winning by 2 goals is low, and the handicap line offers insufficient value. The Draw probability of 27% is level with the Away Win probability of 27%. Although the away side is weak on the road, their defense is not collapsing, giving the Draw option some value. Overall assessment: Home Win probability approximately 48%, Draw approximately 28%, Away Win approximately 24%, Home Win/Draw probability approximately 76%. However, the deep handicap carries high risk, and the positive expected value lies in Home Win/Draw rather than covering the handicap.
🔍 Triple Verification
Signal Feedback: Stable. The home side are unbeaten in their last 3 home matches, and the away side are winless in their last 4 away matches, with a clear divergence in form. Market odds align with the fundamental direction.
Data Support: Neutral. The home side's home attacking efficiency is superior to the away side's away defense, but the home side's overall goal output is low, the deep handicap lacks data support, and the Draw probability cannot be ignored.
Price Value: Reasonable. Home Win at 2.05 corresponds to a 46.1% probability, broadly matching the home side's home advantage. However, the Asian Handicap -1.25 deep line overestimates the home side's ability to win by a margin, giving the handicap negative value. Home Win/Draw (double chance) offers better value.
Final Judgement: Qingdao Youth Island remaining unbeaten at home is the core direction, but the deep handicap carries extremely high risk and should not be chased. The match is expected to feature home control with the away side defending and counter-attacking, with low total goals and the Draw possibility not to be excluded. First choice is Home Win/Draw, with scores leaning toward 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, and a 2-3 goal range.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This report is based on professional data models, for reference only, not betting advice.