Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Youth Island — result and prediction review
Henan Jianye 0 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island
Prediction review
Pre-match call: Home Win / Draw Outcome hit
Pre-match exact score: 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 Score missed
Full pre-match analysis
🏆 Core Prediction Conclusion
Target Match: [Super League] Henan Jianye VS Qingdao Youth Island
Match Date: 2026-08-09
Direction: Home Win
HT/FT: D/H
Scores Recommendation: 2-0, 2-1, 1-1
Pick Selection: Home Win
Handicap Recommendation: Asian Handicap Home -1.25 can pass; Sports Lottery Handicap -1 Home Win (requires winning by 2+ goals, harder than Asian Handicap, be cautious)
Goals Range: Over (leaning toward 2-3 goal range)
Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
⚠️ Risk Warning
Upset Alert: No. Henan Jianye are playing at home with stable attacking output in recent home games (averaging 1.75 goals per home match in the last 4), while Qingdao Youth Island's away attacking efficiency is extremely low (averaging only 0.50 goals per away match in the last 2). The fundamental gap is clear, and the upset probability is suppressed to a low level.
Trap Alert: Yes. The market offers a deep handicap of Home -1.25, but Henan Jianye have conceded an average of 1.50 goals per match in their last 6, so their defense is not solid; Qingdao Youth Island's recent overall record is 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, and their form is not poor. If the home side fail to break through for a long time, there is a trap of winning the match but losing the handicap (winning by only 1 goal). The Sports Lottery integer handicap of -1 is significantly harder than the Asian Handicap and requires caution.
Direct Advice: The Home Win direction is trustworthy, but for the handicap, it is better to choose Asian Handicap Home -1.25 or skip the Sports Lottery Handicap -1, to avoid falling into the trap of winning the match but losing the handicap.
⚽ Match Details Forecast
Cards: 3-5
Corners: 7-11
Early Goal Alert (15m/30m): Special 1 (1-15 min) no goal / Special 2 (16-30 min) goal. Both teams' goal frequency in the 1-15 minute window across their last 6 matches is only 17%, so an exploratory opening is highly likely; however, Henan Jianye's goal frequency in the 16-30 minute window is as high as 67%, and Qingdao Youth Island's is also 50% in the same period. This window is a common high-frequency scoring period for both sides, and the home side is expected to break the deadlock first with a higher probability.
Key Periods: 16-30 minutes (the home side's historically high-frequency scoring window) and 65-80 minutes (the period when the away side's defense loosens after physical decline on the road).
📊 Fundamentals Summary
Ranking/Recent Form: Henan Jianye's actual completed results in the last 6 matches are 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match. Overall form is fluctuating noticeably, but home performances are better than away, with the last 4 home matches averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded, showing stable attacking output. The team recently displays a typical strong-at-home, weak-away profile, with home wins over Qingdao Hainiu (5-1) and a draw against Dalian Zhixing (1-1) demonstrating home point-taking efficiency. Qingdao Youth Island's last 6 matches are 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Their overall record is impressive, but the away sample is only 2 matches, averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match. Their away attacking output is severely muted, the away win over Shenyang City (1-0) has limited value, and the 0-3 away defeat to Sichuan Jiuniu exposed the instability of their away defense. In terms of tactical style, Henan Jianye tend to take the initiative at home with controlled possession and pressing, using wide crosses to create chances; Qingdao Youth Island rely more on defensive counter-attacks, but lack effective progression methods away from home, with extremely low attacking conversion. The contrast between the home side's tactical initiative at home and the away side's passivity on the road is the most core strength gap in this match.
Injuries: Specific injury list data is missing, so the absence of key players on either side cannot be confirmed. However, from a tactical function perspective, if Henan Jianye are missing their main wide attacker, the threat of their crossing tactics will drop significantly, and the attack may fall into a positional stalemate; if Qingdao Youth Island are missing their midfield playmaker, their already weak away counter-attacking system will be further paralyzed, leaving them to defend passively. The recent rotation scale of both squads is unknown, but given the dense schedule, both sides have rotation possibilities. As the home side, Henan Jianye's rotation is expected to be smaller than the away side's, so the completeness of their main framework is relatively more guaranteed. If Qingdao Youth Island adopt a conservative rotation strategy away from home, their attacking threat will be further weakened, and the match is likely to become a half-pitch attack-defense drill.
Motivation: This is Round 22 of the Super League regular season. Henan Jianye are at home with a strong desire to take points. Their recent home record is stable, and facing an opponent weak on the road, their intention to take all three points is clear. Although Qingdao Youth Island's recent overall record is decent, their away performances differ greatly from home. The team tends to adopt a conservative point-taking strategy on the road, and taking 1 point away would count as mission accomplished. From a schedule perspective, Henan Jianye face consecutive away matches afterward, so the strategic value of grabbing points at home in this match is extremely high, with a clear motivational boost. Qingdao Youth Island may shift their focus to subsequent home matches, and their level of commitment in this away game is questionable. The motivational gap between the two sides is one of the key supporting factors pushing up the home win probability in the market.
Data: Henan Jianye's last 6 matches average 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match (actual completed data), with the last 4 home matches averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded; Qingdao Youth Island's last 6 matches average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match, with the last 2 away matches averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. xG data is missing, so expected goals comparison is not possible, but the actual goal data clearly shows the home side's attacking efficiency at home is far higher than the away side's attacking efficiency on the road. In terms of historical meetings, the two sides have faced each other 5 times recently, with Henan Jianye recording 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, averaging 2.20 total goals per match. The head-to-head record is slightly unfavorable, but the most recent meeting (April 2026) ended in a 0-0 stalemate, and the home/away factors in this match differ from the historical sample, so head-to-head data is only for auxiliary reference. In terms of market odds, Home Win is 1.57, Draw is 4.00, Away Win is 5.50. After removing the margin, the implied probabilities are Home Win 59.6%, Draw 23.4%, Away Win 17.0%, showing a clear market lean toward the home side. The Asian Handicap is Home -1.25, and the Sports Lottery Handicap is -1. The depth of the handicap shows the market has some expectation of the home side winning by 2+ goals. From a price value perspective, the 59.6% implied probability for Home Win is broadly consistent with the fundamental analysis, with no obvious overvaluation or undervaluation detected. However, the handicap carries a win-the-match-lose-the-handicap risk. The Home Win direction is a positive expected value option, while the handicap direction requires careful evaluation.
🔍 Triple Verification
Signal Feedback: Stable. The home side's home attacking data and the away side's away defensive data form a clear contrast, and the market odds align with the fundamental direction, with no contradictory signals.
Data Support: Positive. The home side's home average of 1.75 goals scored against the away side's away average of 1.50 goals conceded shows a clear attacking efficiency advantage for the home side; the away side's away average of only 0.50 goals scored makes it difficult to pose a real threat to the home side's defense.
Price Value: Reasonable. The Home Win odds of 1.57 basically match the 59.6% implied probability after removing the margin, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation detected. The Home Win direction has positive expected value.
Final Judgement: Henan Jianye's home advantage is clear, and the away side's attacking output on the road is weak, so the Home Win direction is trustworthy. However, the handicap carries a win-the-match-lose-the-handicap risk. It is recommended to take Home Win as the core option and treat the handicap direction with caution.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This report is based on professional data models, for reference only, not betting advice.