Tianjin Teda vs Yunnan Yukun — result and prediction review
Tianjin Teda 3 - 2 Yunnan Yukun
Prediction review
Pre-match call: Home Win / Draw Outcome hit
Pre-match exact score: 2-0, 2-1, 1-1 Score missed
Full pre-match analysis
🏆 Core Prediction Conclusion
Target Match: [Super League] Tianjin Teda VS Yunnan Yukun
Match Date: 2026-08-01
Direction: Home Win/Draw (double chance, including draw)
HT/FT: D/H
Scores Recommendation: 2-0, 2-1, 1-1
Pick Selection: Home Win/Draw (Home Win or Draw)
Handicap Recommendation: Asian Handicap Home -1.25 is worth a punt, but beware of winning the match but losing the handicap; Sports Lottery Handicap -1 Home Win is difficult, recommend caution or skip.
Goals Range: Over lean, goals range 2-3
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
⚠️ Risk Warning
Upset Alert: No. Tianjin Teda's home defensive numbers are excellent (0.33 goals conceded per game in last 6, 2 clean sheets at home), and the most recent home meeting was a 3-0 win over Yunnan Yukun, with clear fundamental advantage. However, Yunnan Yukun's attack averages 2.33 goals per game and has upset firepower, so be wary of them grabbing points away.
Trap Alert: Yes. Market home win odds of 2.25 imply around 41.3% probability, but the Asian Handicap opens at Home -1.25 deep line, suggesting the market expects a big Tianjin Teda win. However, Tianjin Teda averages only 1.5 goals per game in the last 6, and their ability to win by 2+ goals is questionable — the deep line carries a "win the match but lose the handicap" trap. Sports Lottery Handicap -1 Home Win requires a 2-goal margin, significantly harder than the Asian Handicap, so caution is needed.
Direct Advice: First choice Home Win/Draw (double chance), focus on scores 2-0, 2-1, and treat the deep handicap with caution.
⚽ Match Details Forecast
Cards: 3-5. Both sides average 2.2 yellow cards per game, combined 4.4, and given mid-table league intensity, total cards expected in the 3-5 range.
Corners: 8-12. Based on authoritative data models, both sides are close in corner creation and defense (Tianjin 5.3/4.8, Yunnan 5.0/4.7), total corners expected at 8-12.
Early Goal Alert (15m/30m): No goal in 1-15min / Goal in 16-30min. Yunnan Yukun have a 33% scoring frequency in the 1-15 minute window, but Tianjin Teda start solidly at home, and the first-half draw probability is high, so the first goal is expected in the 16-30 minute window.
Key Periods: 16-30 minutes (Yunnan Yukun's early attacking window) and 60-75 minutes (Tianjin Teda's second-half push period).
📊 Fundamentals Summary
Ranking/Recent Form: Tianjin Teda have 4W-1D-1L in the last 6, averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game, with top-tier defensive performance; at home in 2 games they average 2.00 goals scored with zero conceded, showing clear home dominance. They recently won consecutive away matches against Qingdao Hainiu and Shanghai Shenhua, in good form. Yunnan Yukun have 2W-2D-2L in the last 6, averaging 2.33 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game — ferocious attack but huge defensive holes; in 3 away games they average 3.00 goals conceded, with glaring defensive issues. Tactically, Tianjin Teda lean toward solid defense and counter-attacks, controlling tempo well at home; Yunnan Yukun prefer open attacking play, and their defensive vulnerability is amplified away from home. The recent form contrast is clear: "home team solid, away team strong in attack but weak in defense."
Injuries: Specific injury list data is missing, so key player absences cannot be confirmed. Based on tactical function analysis, Tianjin Teda's defensive system relies on collective coordination; if a starting centre-back or defensive midfielder is absent, their 0.33 goals-conceded-per-game rate will be tested. Yunnan Yukun's attack depends heavily on the finishing efficiency of foreign strikers; if a key foreign attacker is absent, their 2.33 goals-per-game firepower will be significantly reduced. Additionally, Yunnan Yukun concede 3.00 goals per away game; if a starting full-back or centre-back is absent, the defensive holes will widen further. Current squad depth changes are unknown — the official pre-match lineup must be the reference.
Motivation: This is Round 21 of the Super League regular season. Both teams sit in the mid-table or upper-mid-table, with no direct relegation or title pressure, but the points race is tight and every point affects final positioning. Tianjin Teda are at home, in good recent form, with clear motivation to take all three points to consolidate their ranking. Yunnan Yukun are away against a strong defensive side, with the goal likely to avoid defeat and fight for a point, avoiding consecutive away losses. Neither team has major cup distractions, and fixture pressure is relatively balanced. The home side has a slight motivational edge, but the away side's attacking intent is strong and they will not play passively.
Data: Tianjin Teda average 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game in the last 6; at home in 2 games they average 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Yunnan Yukun average 2.33 scored and 2.50 conceded per game in the last 6; away in 3 games they average 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. xG data is unavailable, so actual goal data is used. In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Tianjin Teda have 1W-1D-2L, but the most recent home meeting was a 3-0 win over Yunnan Yukun, giving clear psychological advantage. Market odds: home win 2.25, draw 3.5, away win 2.9; after removing margin, home win probability 41.3%, draw 26.6%, away win 32.1% — the market leans toward the home side but without absolute confidence. The Asian Handicap Home -1.25 deep line, compared to the home side's 1.5 goals-per-game attacking output, is on the deep side and risks overestimating the home side's big-win ability. Sports Lottery Handicap -1 Home Win requires a 2-goal margin, which is harder. Overall, home win probability is slightly higher than away win, but the draw probability cannot be ignored — Home Win/Draw (double chance) is the safer pick. Based on the home side's solid defense and the away side's fragile away defense, scores lean toward 2-0, 2-1, with 1-1 as a supplementary draw score.
🔍 Triple Verification
Signal Feedback: Stable. Tianjin Teda's home defensive numbers and recent form form a positive resonance, and Yunnan Yukun's away defensive vulnerability is a clear weakness.
Data Support: Positive. The home side's 0.33 goals conceded per game versus the away side's 3.00 goals conceded per away game forms a stark contrast, supporting the home-side-unbeaten call.
Price Value: Reasonable. Home win odds of 2.25 are neither clearly overpriced nor underpriced, but the Asian Handicap -1.25 deep line risks overestimating the home side's big-win ability; draw odds of 3.5 offer some defensive value.
Final Judgement: Tianjin Teda's home defense is solid, Yunnan Yukun's away defense is fragile, and the home side has a high probability of avoiding defeat. However, the home side's attacking efficiency is limited and the deep handicap carries high risk — first choice is Home Win/Draw double chance, with scores 2-0, 2-1, 1-1.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This report is based on professional data models, for reference only, not betting advice.
Uncertainty Note: The biggest uncertain variables are both sides' injury lists and starting lineups; missing data prevents precise assessment of lineup-change impact. If Tianjin Teda's key defenders are absent, their defensive advantage weakens and the home win probability drops; if Yunnan Yukun's key foreign striker is absent, their attacking firepower drops significantly and the away win probability falls further. This prediction is based on existing real completed-match data and market odds; some conclusions are model inferences, not absolute facts.